By Keith Mitchell

Vodafone made headlines earlier this summer when they announced quarter-over-quarter revenue growth for the first time since 2008 (http://bit.ly/cUoAef). Seeing as many analysts had predicted a revenue decline, this is broadly viewed an impressive achievement and a positive indicator for the overall economy. Indeed revenue growth is always better than a decline, and we may well be climbing our way out of the economic hole we’ve inhabited for the past two years. But does this really signal a turnaround for the largest wireless company in the world outside of China?

A closer look at the results reveals that revenue in Western Europe declined 1.7%, with only Germany and the UK showing modest growth. Declines in the rest of the countries dragged the financial results into the red. Operationally, voice was predictably in negative territory posting an 8.6% decline. Surprisingly, messaging was only modestly positive, posting 1.5% growth.

So where is the growth coming from? Geographically, look to the East and South. Operationally, look to data.

Revenue in Africa/Central Europe grew by 3.7%, and revenue in AsiaPac/Middle East grew by a whopping 10.5%. It is important to note that these two regions now make up over a third of total revenue. Operationally, data led the way with 23.3% growth in Europe.

While Vodafone’s quarterly performance metrics may or may not be indicative of macro-economic improvements, we can certainly draw one conclusion from these results: the company’s future growth will come from providing data services to emerging economies. Mobile Internet services that leverage the assets of Vodafone’s network will mark the future of the company. This will be aided by their ability to effectively market themselves in Central Europe, Middle East, Africa and Asia/Pac. Keep an eye out for Vodafone’s next earnings announcement in early November for further proof points.

By: MEDIA RELEASE FROM Wireless Intelligence
India and China drive global mobile subscriber growth

Asia-Pacific region accounted for 45% of global connections by year-end 2009
LONDON,UK,23April 2010: The global mobile market grew by almost 200 million subscriber connections in the fourth quarter of 2010 to reach 4.7 billion by year-end, according to the latest Wireless Intelligence report, Quarterly World Review: Q4 2009. Asia-Pacific remained the world’s largest region, accounting for over 45% (2.1 billion) of global mobile connections, mainly due to strong growth in India and China. The Asia-Pacific region accounted for 62% of the net new connections added in the quarter.
In total 192.8 million mobile connections were added in Q4 2009, an annual rise of 16% and up 4% on a sequential basis. GSM connections accounted for 80% of total connections, while WCDMA and CDMA accounted for 10% each. Prepaid connections accounted for 73%, while postpaid (contract) connections accounted for the remaining 27%. Wireless Intelligence calculates that total global mobile penetration reached 69% by year-end.
The quarter also saw the launch of 30 new mobile networks, including the first two networks based on the next generation Long Term Evolution (LTE) mobile standard.
“2009 was a positive year for the mobile telecoms industry and one that saw it outperform global economic trends,” commented Joss Gillet, senior analyst at Wireless Intelligence.”Nonetheless, the fact that developing countries account for half of the world’s connections today demonstrates how mature markets are reaching capacity. From Europe to the Americas, the prospects for the year ahead depend on how quickly mobile operators can boost revenues generated by data services. By contrast, in regions such as Africa and the Asia-Pacific, many price-sensitive markets require investment to expand 2G and 3G networks, which have been delayed by the global recession. In such a challenging competitive environment, time-to-market is more critical than ever to sustain growth and differentiate from competition.”
The new Wireless Intelligence report Quarterly World Review: Q4 2009 is available to registered members and select members of the media. For more information contact info@wirelessintelligence.com
Regional Highlights

Asia-Pacific (2.1 billion connections, 45% of global total): The world’s two largest mobile markets China and India were responsible for the majority of growth in the Asia-Pacific region. India surpassed half a billion connections during Q4 2009, adding 53.4 million net additions and closing the quarter on 525.2 million connections. Indian growth is linked to the fact that many existing operators launched their networks in new circles (service areas) in the quarter, whilenew market entrants also appeared. Meanwhile, China added an average of 9 million net additions per month during 2009, ending the year with a total 726 million connections 16% of the worldwide total. Chinese 3G connections reached 10 million by year-end. Third-placed operator China Telecom is doing better than expected on the back of bundled deals and is doing especially well in 3G, helping it catch up with its two larger competitors.
Western Europe(519 million, 11%): Connections growth in Western Europe improved in the second half of 2009 following a slow start to the year. However, the number of operators reporting negative quarterly net additions increased in Q4 2009, with TIM Italy having a particularly bad quarter. On the plus side, revenue from 3G data services is growing is most markets, which is beginning to have a significant effect ondata ARPU. Notable network launches in the quarter included three HSPA+ launches in Finland (DNA), Spain (Telefnica) and Switzerland (Swisscom) as well as the first two LTE network deployments in the world launched by TeliaSonera in Oslo (Norway) and Stockholm (Sweden) in December 2009.
Americas (504 million, 11%): The Americas region grew by 11% in the quarter to exceed 500 million mobile connections by year-end, reaching 86% market penetration. Brazil still accounts for one third of connections in the region and grew its installed base by 16% in 2009 to 176 million connections, adding 8 million net additions in Q4. Mexico and Argentina are the second- and third-largest markets adding 1.7 million and 1.5 million connections, respectively, in the quarter. However, many markets in the region are approaching high levels of maturity, which has seen operators look to data services in order to gain revenue share. Regulatory initiatives (including taxes and mobile number portability) also affected operators in many regional markets.
Eastern Europe(480 million, 10%): Eastern European operators continue to show signs of market slowdown. The region is showing signs of a high level of maturity, reaching 120% market penetration in the quarter, and mobile connections growth is mainly driven by replacement and multiple SIMs. The region passed the 480 million connections mark by year-end, representing a 7% annual growth rate way below the world average of 15%. There are promising signs in Eastern Europe of strong 3G connections growth, though future progress in this area will depend on extra network investment by the large operator groups in the region, many of whomscaled back such investments in 2009.
Africa (464 million, 10%): Nigeria remains Africas largest mobile market with total connections reaching 73 million by the end of 2009. The addition of 4.1 million connections in Q4 2009 made it Nigerias strongest quarter for a year. Over half of these net additions were gained by market-leader MTN, which reached 30.8 million connections. In South Africa, SIM card registration (introduced from August 2009) has had a significant impact, with Q4 witnessing a second consecutive quarter of connection losses in excess of 1 million.
USA/Canada (309 million, 7%): The US market witnessed its strongest quarterly connections growth in three years by amassing 5.9 million net additions in Q4 2009. Market-leader Verizon ended Q4 2009 with 91.2 million total connections following net additions of 2.2 million, the operator’s highest pro forma net additions since Q3 2008. Second-placed AT&T reported 2.7 million net additions the operators second-highest quarterly total ever. AT&Ts figures were boosted by the completion of its acquisition of Centennial Wireless in November, which added 863,000 connections. In Canada, Bell Mobility (BCE) and Telus Mobility launched their shared HSPA/HSPA+ network in November, which they claim is four times larger than market-leader Roger Wireless HSPA+ footprint.

Middle East (261 million, 6%): Turkey ended 2009 with 62.9 million connections, maintaining its position as the largest market in the Middle East region despite a decline of 918,000 connections in the last quarter and 3.1 million year-on-year. The quarterly decline was led by market-leader Turkcell, which reported its fourth consecutive quarter of negative net additions with a loss of 600,000 connections. In Iran, the second-largest market in the region, MTN Irancell reported strong connections growth in Q4 with net additions of 2.6 million, enabling it to increase its market share to 40%.

By Philip Stanfield

Mobile World Congress (MWC) was different in 2010. I know it rained the whole time but there was a real buzz in Barcelona. 2010 was all about the lifestyle impact of Mobile through social media and the industry’s products, services and solutions to drive the use of data.  Everywhere one turned there were demos of applications and smartphones.

MWC is now two communities. The consumer focussed, mobile internet savvy community embracing everyone from media companies and handset manufacturers to innovative operators and software vendors; and the traditional world of voice and base stations and OSS/BSS.

The Mobile Monday ‘Where Mobile meets Media’ event was fascinating with a panel session including the BBC’s Lucie McClean, Helen Keegan, Mobile Marketer & Techno Kitten, and Steve Ives CEO TAPTU.  Over half the audience was female and under 35.  There were lively informed debates on the end of newspapers (yes) and magazines (no) with the arrival of iPad et al; whether App stores will be here in 5 years or if everything will be in the ‘The Cloud’ – oh and what young people really want from a phone (free IM); and the fact that most people don’t yet own an iPhone!  

The big boys made big announcements too. Google’s Eric Schmidt made a keynote speech and announced that Mobile was now at the heart of Google’s future. And his ‘Mobile First’ mantra states that 3 unique areas have now converged on the mobile device – Computing Power, Interconnectivity and the Cloud.  Schmidt said ‘If you don’t use the power of the Cloud – you’ll fail’.   He also said Google’s Android was selling on devices at a rate of 60,000 a day.

Vodafone’s CEO Vittorio Colao reported that ‘one in four of the handsets on Vodafone’s network were now smartphones with 40% annual growth.’ He also talked about the GSMA’s OneAPI initiative which is defining the standards to make it fast and cheap for developers and applications such as Facebook to access services such as location on the operator’s network.  Kevin Smith from Vodafone presented in a series of OneAPI workshops with some real progress reported including a live pilot in Canada across all its operators.

Microsoft’s Steve Ballmer drew the crowds for the launch of Windows Phone 7 Series and showcased, you guessed it, its social networking and content capabilities. Microsoft had a very busy stand for the whole show.

The Mobile Operator community made a big announcement to launch an international applications platform or Wholesale Applications Community. This initiative is backed by 15 of the world’s largest operators including AT&T, Docomo, China Mobile, and Vodafone with a combined 3 Billion consumers. The business model is likely to be similar to Apple’s App Store and Vodafone’s 360 App Store – with operators taking a 30% revenue share. The initiative should make it attractive to developers with a large potential market. And joining the dots the use of the OneAPI standard could make applications interesting, for example the ability for an App to know the location, at any moment, of your children who don’t have smartphones!

2010 promises to be a transformational year for the whole mobile ecosystem.  There is almost a perfect storm of forces at play:

• very high levels of consumer expectations based upon their internet experiences;
• big brands, such as Google, Apple & Facebook going ‘over the top’ to capture the hearts, minds and wallets of consumers;
• the mobile operator community responding with strategic initiatives such as OneAPI and the Wholesale Applications Community in an attempt to hold on to subscribers and monetise the mobile internet. 

I really believe 2010 will be a mobile year to remember.  The proof of course will be seen in the sunshine of Barcelona in February 2011.

The GSMA today announced that mobile operators around the world will invest up to $72 billion in Mobile Broadband* technologies in 2010. The new operator CAPEX investment data, compiled by global investment firm Deutsche Bank, reflects the continued consumer and enterprise demand for Mobile Broadband services and the need for underlying infrastructure, and comes as global HSPA connections reach the 200 million milestone.

Asia Pacific will see the greatest investment in Mobile Broadband with predicted capital expenditure of up to $34 billion. North America follows with up to $19 billion, with Europe expected to invest up to $14 billion. Mobile Broadband is set to account for 52 per cent of all operator investment in mobile infrastructure globally.  Of all the regions, North America will spend the greatest percentage – 80 per cent – of its total mobile CAPEX investment on Mobile Broadband.

“The forecasted investment in Mobile Broadband technologies reflects the importance the mobile industry places on enabling consumers to access any type of content on the move – whatever they want, whenever they want, wherever they want,” said Michael O’Hara, Chief Marketing Officer at the GSMA. “HSPA and HSPA+ have become the dominant global Mobile Broadband technologies and are set to benefit from a significant proportion of this CAPEX investment, resulting in faster and more reliable Mobile Broadband services being available to more subscribers around the world by the end of this year.”

HSPA connections have seen phenomenal growth in all markets since 2007, and this is set to continue in 2010 with the investment operators will make in Mobile Broadband technology. According to industry research firm Wireless Intelligence, the growth of HSPA is predicted to increase from an average of around nine million connections per month as of the end of 2009, to almost 13 million per month. Of the total estimated 342 million connections at the end of 2010, Europe will lead the way with 120 million connections, becoming the number one region for HSPA connections, with Asia Pacific accounting for 116 million and North America 58 million.

Operators around the world are pledging investment for continued HSPA and HSPA+ network upgrades to optimise available data speeds and maximise network capacity. In March 2009, mobilkom austria launched Europe’s first HSPA+ network to achieve competitive differentiation in a saturated mobile market. Through ongoing investment, mobilkom austria has developed an extremely successful mobile data offering and has seen its number of customers quadruple over the last three years.

“mobilkom austria was the first European mobile operator to deploy HSPA+ technology and we now have one of the fastest Mobile Broadband networks in Europe,” said Hannes Ametsreiter, CEO, Telekom Austria Group. “We’ve been able to cost effectively offer our customers peak download speeds up to 21Mbps, delivering an expansive mobile experience. mobilkom austria is committed to enriching this user experience through the provision of a solid and reliable supporting backhaul infrastructure using fibre technology.”

In Asia, Telstra, and its wholly-owned Hong Kong subsidiary CSL, is at the forefront of HSPA+ deployment. Telstra’s Next G™ HSPA+ network is the world’s largest 3G network, with speeds unsurpassed by any other national Mobile Broadband network, and covering more than 99% of the Australian population. Telstra has had HSPA+ with a peak network downlink speed of 21Mbps in commercial operation for over twelve months, and is currently testing dual carrier HSPA technology supporting peak network downlink speeds of 42Mbps. CSL currently offers the fastest Mobile Broadband network in Hong Kong, having deployed its Next G HSPA+ network last March.

“The strong technical performance of HSPA+ technology is a key differentiator for Telstra and its subsidiary CSL network in Hong Kong,” said David Thodey, CEO, Telstra. “The capabilities of HSPA+ have enabled us to deliver unparalleled network performance to our customers and enable them to enjoy a rich, next generation Mobile Broadband experience today.” 

There are currently 200 million HSPA connections worldwide, with more than 1,800 HSPA enabled devices available from more than 150 suppliers. Across 123 countries, there are currently 294 commercially live networks, of which 183 currently deliver peak data rates of above 3.6 Mbps, and 37 commercially live HSPA+ networks, each capable of delivering data speeds up to 21 Mbps.

SLA Mobile will be attending the GSMA’s Mobile World Congress in Barcelona next week. 

*Deutsche Bank’s forecast on Mobile Broadband CAPEX covers spend on technologies including HSPA/HSPA+, WCDMA and EVDO/CDMA.

You may be surprised to know that…*

As mobile phones outnumber TV sets by over 3 to 1, and PC based internet users by over 4 to 1, and the total laptop and desktop PC population by nearly 5 to 1, advertisers in many markets have recently rushed to this media.

In Spain 75% of mobile phone owners receive ads, in France 62% and in Japan 54%.

More remarkably as mobile advertising matures, like in the most advanced markets, the user involvement also matures. In Japan today, already 44% of mobile phone owners click on ads they receive on their phones.

D2 the biggest mobile advertising agency of Japan announced in November 2009 at the Mobile Asia Congress, that mobile advertising was worth 900 million dollars in Japan alone.

* information from Wikipedia